Copyright © 2009 Ed Bagley

It is three weeks to the kick-off of the 2009 college football season, the preseason USA Today Top 25 Coaches’ Poll is out, my favorite team is not among the top 25 teams, and has no chance to play in the national championship game. Say, what?

“No way, dude,” as Garth (Dana Carvey) would say to Wayne (Mike Myers) in Saturday Night Live episodes and in the movie Wayne’s World.

“Way,” Wayne would reply, meaning, in this case, that any team that is not ranked in the preseason Coaches’ Poll could play in the national championship game at the end of the season if it played a perfect season.

The only problem is, no team ever has. Alabama almost became the first team to do it last year, being unranked and winning its first 12 games to climb to the top of the BCS standings for 5 weeks before losing to Florida 31-20 in the Southeastern Conference (SEC) championship game.

The Crimson Tide did not handle their first loss of the season well, losing again to Utah 31-17 in the Sugar Bowl.

Alabama’s experience demonstrates just how difficult it is to get the national championship when you begin the season unranked in the preseason Coaches’ Poll. It is way more than difficult, it is darn near impossible as no team that was not in the top 10 in the preseason has reached the title game during the last 5 seasons.

In fact, in the entire 11-year Bowl Championship Series history, no team has begun a season unranked by the coaches and played in the national championship game.

Here is one big reason why: When you are ranked in the preseason poll, the assumption is that you are among the nation’s very best teams, even if you are not. So if you are in the top 25 and lose to another top 25 team, it is no big deal. You literally have to lose to an unranked team to lose credibility early on.

An example would be if this year’s No. 1 (Florida), No. 2 (Texas) or No. 3 (Oklahoma) teams were upset early in the year by another top 25 team, they would still be an odds-on favorite to play in the BCS title game if it is their only loss.

A second reason is that the Coaches’ Poll is more accurate than you think it would be. Even the Harris Poll that is taken after 5 weeks of play had the EXACT same teams among its top 25. Heck, 20 of the teams had the same ranking or were within one place of where they were in the Coaches’ Poll.

I am a graduate of Michigan State University, and imagine my consternation when my Spartans were ranked 27th, missing the preseason poll by two spots. So even if Michigan State went 12-0, the odds say that a higher-ranked team with one loss would get the nod for the title game.

Utah was unranked in last year’s preseason poll, was undefeated on the season (13-0), and beat Alabama 31-17 in the Sugar Bowl when the Utes were shut out of the title game by Florida (13-1) and Oklahoma (12-2). Such is life.

The fact that Florida is ranked No. 1 in this year’s poll is not unreasonable. The Gators won the National Championship in 2006 and 2008. Quarterback Tim Tebow (the 2007 Heisman Trophy winner as a sophomore) returns, 7 starters are back on their offense and their entire defensive team (two deep no less) returns.

No. 2 Texas returns 16 starters and QB Colt McCoy. No. 3 Oklahoma returns QB Sam Bradford (last year’s Heisman winner), TE Jermaine Gresham and DT Gerald McCoy (all three will probably be NFL first-round picks).

After some research of this year’s top 25 preseason favorites, I was upset to learn that two of the picks?No. 16 Boise State and No. 23 Notre Dame?will play only 1 other top 25 pick during the season.

I personally like the Fighting Irish. I rooted for them growing up in Michigan. I also recognize that they are an independent team not attached to a league, and would not win nearly as many games as they have over the years if they played in the SEC, Big Ten or Pac 10. They also draw a national audience due to their legacy and are a favorite of the networks because of their pull, meaning they go to bowl games and bigger bowl games when other teams are more deserving.

Seven others play only two other top 25 picks?No. 2 Texas, No. 8 Penn State, No. 10 Mississippi, No. 17 TCU, No. 20 South Carolina, No. 21 Iowa and No. 22 Nebraska.

Eleven others play three other top 25 picks?No. 1 Florida, No. 5 Alabama, No. 6 Ohio State, No. 7 Virginia Tech, No. 11 Oklahoma State, No. 12 California, No. 13 Georgia, No. 15 Georgia Tech, No. 18 Utah, No. 19 Florida State, and No. 25 Oregon State.

And who is playing really tough schedules to stay alive in the drive to the national championship game? Only 3 teams?No. 4 Oklahoma, No. 9 LSU and No. 24 BYU play 4 other top 25 teams.

Does anyone play 5 other top 25 teams? Well, yes?No. 4 USC and No. 14 Oregon, both from the Pac 10 Conference on the West Coast, and a long way from the SEC teams in the Southeast.

USC plays No. 6 Ohio State away, No. 12 California away, No. 14 Oregon away, No. 23 Notre Dame away and No. 25 Oregon State at home. Oregon gets to face No. 4 USC, No. 12 California, No. 18 Utah and No. 25 Oregon State at home, and No. 16 Boise State away.

But who REALLY plays the toughest schedule against top 25 teams? Try LSU. The Tigers host No. 1 Florida at home, but then must travel to No. 5 Alabama, No. 10 Mississippi and No. 13 Georgia.

So what is my gripe about leaving Michigan State out of the top 25? Just this: The Spartans host No. 8 Penn State and No. 21 Iowa, and travel to No. 23 Notre Dame. They play 3 top 25 teams.

Heck, in my book, Michigan State has just as much business in the top 25 as Boise State, Notre Dame, Nebraska, Iowa, North Carolina, TCU, Mississippi, Penn State and Texas, all of whom play only 2 top 25 opponents this season.

Remember this: Even as big a deal as Oklahoma is, the Sooners have lost their last 5 BCS games.

College football is so much more interesting than pro football because the talent level is so much less than at the pro level. That means big-time teams can get upset any Saturday, and teams forecast to do nothing this year can rise to the top of the heap, as Alabama did for 12 straight weeks last year.

So let the games begin. Let us settle this on the field of play. We will see at the end of the season who deserves to be in the top 25, and who does not. I expect to see the Michigan State Spartans among the top 25 teams by the end of the season.

If you liked this article, you might also like:

1. Ed Bagley’s Top 25 Poll – Week 8 – It’s Teetering at the Top
2. Ed Bagley’s Top 25 Poll – Week 12 – Two Favorites Win Big
3. Michigan ? Ohio State rivalry: Ohio, Michigan, Michigan Territory, Ohio Stadium, Michigan Stadium, Michigan Wolverines football, Ohio State Buckeyes football, … Championship Series, Coaches’ Poll, AP Poll
4. Juice Williams is in the Heisman poll now?
5. The Blue Screen Of Death!